Trusting The Braintrust

The love today for RG3 after his performance against the Huskies in last night's Alamo Bowl has been overwhelming, and frankly a bit ludicrous in some circles. 

On ESPN 710-AM today, Mike Salk was literally losing his mind with RG3 infatuation.  To the point that he was suggesting.... no..... demanding that the Seahawks trade 4 first round draft picks to move up and take the Junior Baylor QB. 

That wasn't a typo.  I said 4....... that's FOUR first round picks.  For one player.

Let me first say this.  I love Salk.  I appreciate that he's not a born-and-raised Seattleite.  Not a homer.  Not a Seahawks apologist.  His outside perspective is usually refreshing, and his arguments are typically well-researched and thoughtful. 

Today, I think he was drunk.

I may be going against the grain here, but I am diametrically and adamantly opposed to "selling the farm" to move up and draft anyone, even Andrew Luck.  The idea that the Seahawks are only one player away from being a Super Bowl contender is ridiculous.  I know we need a quarterback, I've written about the subject extensively.  The subject dominates my daily thoughts and conversations with friends and co-workers.  I dream about it.  I've flip-flopped on this subject a number of times, in fact if you look through older posts on this blog you will probably be able to find entries where I advocate being patient and others where I insist that the Hawks have to find "that guy" right now, no matter what the cost. 

But I've settled into a position of patience and perspective over hyperbole.

There was a lot of progress this year.... a LOT.  The Seahawks are younger, bigger, faster, stronger, and most of all much more physical, confident and talented then they have been in a long, long time.  But they are not just a QB away from contention.  There are plently of other holes to be filled.  Two or 3 more players on the front 7, in particular at least two more who have unique pass-rushing skills.  Another O-lineman or two, another receiver who can gain seperation and beat defensive backs deep, and a physical, bigger RB who can complement and back up Lynch without the drop-off in style we see currently. 

And yes, we need a young QB. 

But the idea of dealing four, or even 3 first round picks to get Luck or Griffin is not just risky, it's downright stupid. First of all, let's get this straight; Luck is going first overall, and there's no way we could ever possibly pry that pick away from the Rams or Colts.  So that leaves Griffin.  I'm as impressed as everyone else with his raw skills, but if I'm giving up even two first round picks, I better be getting a player who can start from day one, and Griffin is a MAJOR project.  He has a nice arm, appears accurate, and his athleticism is unquestioned, but has anyone seen him take a snap from center?  Or a 5 step drop?  Or anything other than one simple read?  Anyone?

No, no, no and no. 

But suppose for a second that you love RG3, and you aren't going to be convinced he's anything other than can't-miss no matter what I say, then consider this.  Don't think about what you would be getting by trading multiple first round picks for RG3, but instead, ask yourself what you would be getting IN COMPARISON WITH WHAT YOU COULD GET LATER WITHOUT GIVING UP A THING! In other words, comparison shop.  Are Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck the only QB's in the 2012 draft that are going to be outstanding, long-term starters in the NFL?  Absolutely not.  If you're answer is anything else, you simply don't know anything about the league.  There are a lot of intriguing prospects in this draft who are projected to go anywhere from the late first round to the 4th or even 5th round.  At least one of them, and probably more, will become NFL starters. 

There will be another Andy Dalton in this year's draft, I can promise you that.  You just have to find him. 

Consequently, the question becomes, is it smart to trade 3 or 4 years worth of first round draft picks to get QB-A, when you can take QB-B in the second round and be just as successful in the long run?  If you gamble on that higher pick and lose, you rob yourself of the resources to fix your mistake.  You won't be able to try and find another quarterback in two or three years because you won't have your top picks available to you.  You also won't have the same opportunities to fill other holes in the first round as needed.  As a result, you'll be forced to sign free agents, overpay for veterans, and strap your salary cap, further handcuffing your ability to make moves as you proceed. 

From where I sit, I'm actually starting to think that the best course of action for the Seahawks in 2012 is to trade DOWN.  Accumulate extra picks, add necessary talent to the front-7, and work like hell to identify the QB's you like.  Use a late first or early second round pick on one, and take another one in the middle rounds. 

Desperation has made a lot of NFL GM's look foolish, and ultimately lose their jobs.  The great GM's never panic, and trust their evaluations.  Jon Schneider and Pete Carroll have proven to us that they can uncover talent in the middle and late rounds.  We need to trust their ability to find that next quarterback. 

I'm not saying I wouldn't like to see Andrew Luck on my team, or RG3.  But I want the Seahawks to win EVERY year, not just next year.  Staying the course, and using the draft to add talent year after year is the best way to do that.  And giving up four 1st-rounders in any scenario would sabotage that effort.