Trusting The Braintrust

The love today for RG3 after his performance against the Huskies in last night's Alamo Bowl has been overwhelming, and frankly a bit ludicrous in some circles. 

On ESPN 710-AM today, Mike Salk was literally losing his mind with RG3 infatuation.  To the point that he was suggesting.... no..... demanding that the Seahawks trade 4 first round draft picks to move up and take the Junior Baylor QB. 

That wasn't a typo.  I said 4....... that's FOUR first round picks.  For one player.

Let me first say this.  I love Salk.  I appreciate that he's not a born-and-raised Seattleite.  Not a homer.  Not a Seahawks apologist.  His outside perspective is usually refreshing, and his arguments are typically well-researched and thoughtful. 

Today, I think he was drunk.

I may be going against the grain here, but I am diametrically and adamantly opposed to "selling the farm" to move up and draft anyone, even Andrew Luck.  The idea that the Seahawks are only one player away from being a Super Bowl contender is ridiculous.  I know we need a quarterback, I've written about the subject extensively.  The subject dominates my daily thoughts and conversations with friends and co-workers.  I dream about it.  I've flip-flopped on this subject a number of times, in fact if you look through older posts on this blog you will probably be able to find entries where I advocate being patient and others where I insist that the Hawks have to find "that guy" right now, no matter what the cost. 

But I've settled into a position of patience and perspective over hyperbole.

There was a lot of progress this year.... a LOT.  The Seahawks are younger, bigger, faster, stronger, and most of all much more physical, confident and talented then they have been in a long, long time.  But they are not just a QB away from contention.  There are plently of other holes to be filled.  Two or 3 more players on the front 7, in particular at least two more who have unique pass-rushing skills.  Another O-lineman or two, another receiver who can gain seperation and beat defensive backs deep, and a physical, bigger RB who can complement and back up Lynch without the drop-off in style we see currently. 

And yes, we need a young QB. 

But the idea of dealing four, or even 3 first round picks to get Luck or Griffin is not just risky, it's downright stupid. First of all, let's get this straight; Luck is going first overall, and there's no way we could ever possibly pry that pick away from the Rams or Colts.  So that leaves Griffin.  I'm as impressed as everyone else with his raw skills, but if I'm giving up even two first round picks, I better be getting a player who can start from day one, and Griffin is a MAJOR project.  He has a nice arm, appears accurate, and his athleticism is unquestioned, but has anyone seen him take a snap from center?  Or a 5 step drop?  Or anything other than one simple read?  Anyone?

No, no, no and no. 

But suppose for a second that you love RG3, and you aren't going to be convinced he's anything other than can't-miss no matter what I say, then consider this.  Don't think about what you would be getting by trading multiple first round picks for RG3, but instead, ask yourself what you would be getting IN COMPARISON WITH WHAT YOU COULD GET LATER WITHOUT GIVING UP A THING! In other words, comparison shop.  Are Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck the only QB's in the 2012 draft that are going to be outstanding, long-term starters in the NFL?  Absolutely not.  If you're answer is anything else, you simply don't know anything about the league.  There are a lot of intriguing prospects in this draft who are projected to go anywhere from the late first round to the 4th or even 5th round.  At least one of them, and probably more, will become NFL starters. 

There will be another Andy Dalton in this year's draft, I can promise you that.  You just have to find him. 

Consequently, the question becomes, is it smart to trade 3 or 4 years worth of first round draft picks to get QB-A, when you can take QB-B in the second round and be just as successful in the long run?  If you gamble on that higher pick and lose, you rob yourself of the resources to fix your mistake.  You won't be able to try and find another quarterback in two or three years because you won't have your top picks available to you.  You also won't have the same opportunities to fill other holes in the first round as needed.  As a result, you'll be forced to sign free agents, overpay for veterans, and strap your salary cap, further handcuffing your ability to make moves as you proceed. 

From where I sit, I'm actually starting to think that the best course of action for the Seahawks in 2012 is to trade DOWN.  Accumulate extra picks, add necessary talent to the front-7, and work like hell to identify the QB's you like.  Use a late first or early second round pick on one, and take another one in the middle rounds. 

Desperation has made a lot of NFL GM's look foolish, and ultimately lose their jobs.  The great GM's never panic, and trust their evaluations.  Jon Schneider and Pete Carroll have proven to us that they can uncover talent in the middle and late rounds.  We need to trust their ability to find that next quarterback. 

I'm not saying I wouldn't like to see Andrew Luck on my team, or RG3.  But I want the Seahawks to win EVERY year, not just next year.  Staying the course, and using the draft to add talent year after year is the best way to do that.  And giving up four 1st-rounders in any scenario would sabotage that effort. 

So What's Next?

Now that Matt Barkley and Landry Jones have declared their intentions to remain in school for their senior seasons, the Once-Great-Quarterback-Draft-Of-2012 looks less and less like the panacea Seahawk fans have been hoping for.  No way we have the ammunition to move up and get Andrew Luck, and there's no guarantee that even Robert Griffin III comes out either.  Some mock drafts have the 'Hawks grabbing Ryan Tanneyhill in the middle of the first round, but despite my earlier infatuation with his potential, I've read too many negative reports on him from scouting types.  I still think he's a good prospect, and could be a great get in round 2, but most likely some team desperate for a signal-caller will make him a first rounder after all.  I haven't given up on him, and in fact most of his shortcomings sound like nothing more than developmental issues.  A year sitting behind Tavaris Jackson and he could very well be the guy.  That being said, I'd be OK with that scenario if Tanneyhill is available in the second round, but not the first.

At this point I'm ready to move on from the idea of a first round QB selection and suggest the following:

Take the best available front-7 player in the first round, and target a QB in the second.  Better yet, trade down (as this draft appears balanced and deep in areas we don't need to address) and stockpile picks.  Target a guy that can flat-out help us rush the passer in round 1, be it an OLB or DE, and hope a QB is available in round 2 that can develop into a long-term starter. 

But.... who could that be?  Here are a few options.

1) Tanneyhill, see above.

2) Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State.  I know, I know, he's 28 years old, but he has proven himself in a tough conference on a big stage, has a big arm, really good size, and is mature enough that we wouldn't have to live with some of the typical growing pains of most rookie QB's.  A year under T-Jack and Weeden could be ready to step in as a solid starter in year 2, at 29 years of age, with much more upside than Jackson.  I'm not going to rule him out simply because of his age. 

3) Nick Foles, Arizona.  Hard to find a more polarizing prospect.  Rated as a first rounder by one preseason service and a 7th rounder by another, Foles is either potentially elite or a stiff depending on who you talk to.  Trent Dilfer raved about his anticipation and upside after doing extensive film-study of him last month, while other high-profile draft analysts see him as nothing more than a late round flyer.  He's huge, but apparently doesn't have the arm to match his size.  Some defend him by pointing out that he played on bad teams at Arizona.  I haven't seen enough of him to lean one way or another, but the consensus seems to be growing that his stock could rise with a strong showing in post-season All-Star games and workouts.  Bottom line is he's probably not as athletic and mobile as Carroll likes his QB's to be, but one worth keeping an eye on.

4) Austin Davis, Southern Mississipi.  (Pictured Above)  This guy really intrigues me.  He plays in a spread system, but doesn't everyone not named Luck or Barkley?  He's 6-2, 220 and extremely athletic.  A four year starter, he's broken nearly every one of Brett Favre's records, throwing for almost 11,000 yards, 81 TD's, with 27 INT's, and adding another 1300 yards and 25 TD's rushing.  His reputation is one of a firey leader and exceptional worker.  I've seen two of his games and he looks very mechanically sound, with a quick-enough release and good accuracy in the pocket and on the move.  The arm looks strong enough, and he's really quick.  Can he make the adjustment from college spread to a west-coast NFL offense? 

I do know this, the Seahawks sent their scouting staff to see him in person at Virginia this year, and all he did was go 27-41 for 313 yards, 3 TD's and 0 INT's. 

Set your DVR's for tomorrow's Hawaii Bowl and check him out.  Tuck this name away. 

5) Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois.  No, I didn't just make that name up.  Reknowned "Rogue Scout" Dave Razzone turned me on to this guy last week.  He's another 4 year starter, also 6-2, 220, also a spread QB, but one that Razzone compared to, wait for it....... Tim Tebow, and called one of his big sleepers in this year's draft. 

Check the stats and it's hard to ignore.  62% career passer with nearly 9,000 yards passing and a 3-1 TD-INT ratio, and almost 3,000 yards rushing.  I checked out some video on YouTube and indeed he does remind one of Tim Tebow in most areas except for one.... he's much more mechanically sound and thus extremely accurate. 

So there you go.  There are five potential options for the title of Seahawks Quarterback Of The Future.  Are any of them can't-miss?  Of course not, but most if not all of them could be on the board when the Seahawks select in the second, or third, or maybe even fourth round in some cases. 

Right now I would be in favor or the 'Hawks trading down, stockpiling picks, taking a couple pass-rushers, a physical, bigger RB to more closely resemble Marshawn Lynch while serving as his backup, and grabbing one of these guys in the Friday portion of the 2012 draft.

Isn't it amazing how dramatically things have changed on this front in the last 6 weeks?

It's going to be a fascinating offseason. 

Barkley's Looming Decision Has Huge Implications For Seahawks

Matt Barkley has scheduled a 1:00 PST press conference today to announce whether he is returning to USC for his junior year or entering the 2012 NFL Draft.

His decision could affect the Seahawks in a big way.

To the casual observer this probably seems cut and dried, he's coming out right?  Remember the last USC QB named Matt who was faced with the same option?  If Matt Leinart had come out in 2005 he would have likely been the top overall pick, but he stayed, slipped in the eyes of a number of NFL talent evaluators, and ended up going 10th overall the next year. 

No way Barkley makes the same mistake, right?

Not so fast.

We've heard whispers for weeks that Barkley might be leaning toward another year at 'SC, and I think there are legitimate reasons to listen to them:

1) Barkley didn't declare for the draft right after his left tackle Matt Kalil did, as many thought he would.
2) Luck is entrenched as the consensus #1 pick in April's draft, so Barkley has no shot at it this year, but he would most certainly be a candidate for that honor in 2013, and you only get one shot at that.
3) USC is bowl-eligible next season, and they looked like a BCS-quality team last month.  A Barkley return would give them a great chance at the Pac-12 title, and possibly more.
4) The new NFL CBA has drastically reduced the length and dollars that top draft picks are getting, perhaps minimizing that as a factor for potential top picks.
5) He was a shocking non-factor in this year's Heisman race, not even getting an invite to New York, next year he would be a preseason favorite, probably THE favorite. 
6) All he has to do is look north up I-5 to see that coming back for another year of college football CAN work out, as it did for Andrew Luck.

Take all that into account, and the fact that Barkley seems to be a well-grounded, mature kid who is motivated by a lot of things other than money, and I think it's better than a 50/50 shot he's about to tell us all he's staying at USC.

How does this affect the Seahawks? We all know the Hawks need a young franchise QB, we've talked that one to death.  If Barkley and Robert Griffen III (who has yet to declare HIS intentions for the draft as well) are both available this year, it increases their chances of moving up to finally get that guy.  At worst, it pushes other QB prospects down to where Seattle will be picking in the first or second round. 
In my opinion, Barkley is the perfect guy for us.  If he comes out this year, we have a shot to get him, but if he waits until 2013 and goes #1, no way.  If he AND Griffen stay in school, we could be left looking at the Austin Davis and Ryan Tannehill's of the world in the second round.  Not ideal.

And I haven't even mentioned the fact that a Barkley return makes USC a beast next year in the Pac-12.  I don't think any of us would be broken-hearted if we knew we didn't have to face him next season.

So for selfish reasons, here's hoping he declares for the draft today.  At least we don't have to wait much longer to find out.