End Of An Era. Matt Flynn traded. Now what?

(Disclaimer:  I haven't written since.... well you can see the date of my last post.  THAT long.  I will not be held responsible for any rustiness, poor pacing, or just plain crappy writing that is about to follow.  Read at your own risk)

So we traded our backup quarterback.

The one who had one great game and made everyone in Seattle believe he was the next Tom Brady, or Earl Morrall or Kurt Warner... or whatever.

Seahawk fans every are freaking out.

We need to find some sort of All-Pro backup. 

If we don't,  disaster is certain to strike.

Everyone.... just..... chill.

At the time Flynn was signed I was like everyone else; hopeful that he could be the kind of solid, young-ish starting QB we needed to solidify the position for at least a few years.

(In fact, I called it well in advance. 

See this: http://seahawksforever.blogspot.com/2011/08/our-next-qb.html)  

Matt Flynn, we hardly knew ya.

Best-case scenario was that he would end up being a Pro Bowler. He looked good enough in the preseason; efficient, technically sound, good decision maker.  But once it became obvious that Russell Wilson was a breakout star-in-the-making, Flynn's fate was sealed.  He was never going to be anything more than a backup with us. 

This is where it gets murky.  So much of how we perceive professional athletes is wrapped up in their compensation.  A backup point guard who wasn't drafted, gets a chance to play when the starter gets hurt, and averages 15 pts and 6 assists a game is valuable.  Solid.  A steal even.  But if that same player was a lottery pick and put up 15 & 6 he would invariably be labled a bust. And it wouldn't take long.

If Matt Flynn had come to us on a 2 year deal for 5 or 6 million bucks (backup money), this would have all been very neat and clean, and most fans would have seen it for what it really was.  But because he was paid starter money (or at least potential starter money), everyone's view of him changed.  And oh that one game!  Nevermind that it was against a Lions secondary that was donkey crap, when you throw for 6 TD's and 480 yard you raise a lot of eyebrows. 

And expectations.

And that's where it all went wrong, at least in the eyes of a great deal of less-than informed, simple-minded "fans."  Oh, if I had a dollar for every time I saw in my Twitter timeline: "How can we trade Flynn?  He's going to be elite.  He PROVED it in that ONE game!"
So....... I'd have some dollars.  But that's not really where it all went awry.  After all, Russell Wilson was so good that most fans see now it was the right move handing over the reigns to him as a rookie.  The ones that don't... well, they probably can't read this anyway.  But the real disconnect has shown itself in two ways since Flynn was dealt to the Raiders for two late-round draft picks last week.

1. How could we give him away for so little?  He's worth SO much more! I mean, Alex Smith got a SECOND ROUNDER!!!!!
2. What are we going to do now for a backup QB?  All the good ones are signed.  We're doomed!

Allow me to take these one by one..... slowly.

1. Matt Flynn only fetched a 6th round pick because that's what he was worth.  How is worth determined?  By the buying public.  YOU might think Matt Flynn was worth a 2nd round pick because had had that AWESOME game, but the rest of the league was either not interested in him, or only interested in him at that price.  What should that tell you?
2. Great QB's don't grow on trees.  We know that here as well as any other NFL city right?  But solid backup QB's do.  The reports of the Seahawks liking Tyler Thigpen as RW's understudy are out there, and so is the fan reaction.  Most of you seem to think it's a horrible idea, seemingly because Thigpen "sucks."  Go watch some tape on him, look at his numbers, spend 5 minutes doing some actual research (I hear this thing called Google is a good place to look).   He's got some skills, has proven he can make plays, and has a skill set that matches what the Hawks are looking for in our offense.  And then there's the draft.  I think John Schneider and Pete Carroll have shown us they have great eyes for talent yes?  We go into this draft armed with a bunch of extra mid/late round picks.  We can find another solid QB talent.

Tyler Thigpen

And stop with the Josh Portis love.  Please.  He's not the answer, not even if the question is "Can he be passable as a backup?"

I know we live in a society now that's ruled by social media and a thirst for instant answers/analysis/solutions, but the overreaction to each and every move, or even rumor, is beyond annoying.  I want to offer you my final thoughts as a favor to you, to ease your mind.  Call it free therapy, if you will.



Matt Scott please

Look for the Hawks to sign a veteran AND draft a QB AND sign at least one other (vet or UDFA)before camp. If news breaks tomorrow that we've signed Thigpen, or Matt Leinhart, or Vince Young, take a deep breath.  It doesn't mean they believe he is THE guy to lead us in the event Wilson should get hurt.  It means they like his skill set and want to give him a chance to compete for that right.  Nothing more.

Besides... Wilson isn't going to get hurt. He's other-wordly.  An android possibly.

And if that isn't enough to appease you, maybe this well help.  Remember how freaked out we all were about our starting QB situation from 2010-2012?  All that panic and debate is now raging around who our BACKUP is. 

Think about that for a minute.

Go Hawks.

PREVIEW: Cowboys @ Hawks

 

 

After watching coaches tape of the Arizona game (thank you NFL Rewind!), I'm more encouraged than I was immediately afterwards.  But... isn't that always the case?  If you haven't figured it out yet, I'm an optimist; one who's often torn between the emotional reactions of a lifelong fan, and the football-geek, analytical part of me that wants to find answers.  Typically, emotion rules on gameday but by Monday I'm trying to find silver linings. 

 

The biggest frustration last week for me was the inability, or unwillingness, of the Hawks to work down the field.  Was it Darell Bevell taking it easy on his first-time-starting rookie QB?  Was it the rookie QB fighting nerves? Were our receivers failing to get separation? Or was it just the result of an aggressive, talented Cardinal defense playing well at home?

 

Most likely.... all of the above.

 

Initially I was cursing Bevell for completely ignoring the middle of the field  Of the 40 times Russell Wilson dropped back to throw, only 5 times did he throw the ball between the hashmarks.  But after watching the tape, I can't lay all the blame on the play-caller.  There were receivers open on virtually every play, many of them over the middle. Wilson either didn't see them, or didn't have time to see them.  Let's hope it was more of the latter.  Still, I'd like to see more crossing routes, slants, and use of the TE moving foward. 

 

There's enough evidence that Wilson is willing and able to throw the ball down the seam, so I'm not worried about any reluctance he may have had in Arizona.  It's one of the qualities I look for in young quarterbacks, and one that I think is a real strength of Wilson's game.  No matter how good we all think Wilson can be, the game still needs to slow down for him.  Seahawks play-by-play guy Steve Raible said Wilson watched the game tape twice during the 2.5 hour flight home.  He saw the open receivers.  He will adjust.

 

Last year when Seattle travelled to Dallas they lost 23-13.  Tarvaris Jackson threw 3 INT's, but if you recall...this is where Tom Cable's zone blocking scheme started to jell, and the running game kicked into a new gear.  Marshawn Lynch managed 135 yards on 23 carries, on his way to 941 yards over his last 9 games.  The Seahawks will need to do that to have a chance on Sunday against the Cowboys devastating pass rush.  Dallas racked up 3 sacks, 5 tackles for loss and a couple other pressures against the Giants in their opener.  They will attempt to harass Wilson and force mistakes.  To beat the Cowboys, however, Wilson will have to be efficient but can't afford to be too conservative.  He will need to take some shots down the field.  The Giants averaged 4.3 yards per rush against Dallas.  A similar output by the Hawks would go a long way towards setting up the play-action passing game. 

 

Meanwhile, Demarco Murray rushed for 139 yards against us last year, and the Seahawks rushing defense will have to stand up on Sunday and force Tony Romo and his talented group of receivers into 3rd and long situations.  Murray can be a load.  Long runs must be limited.

 

This is a huge test.  The Cowboys have significantly upgraded their defensive backfield, the most glaring weakness from a year ago.  Their front 7 is as disruptive as any in the league, and the skill position players on offense are unusually healthy.  And when they're healthy.... they are really good.    The Seahawks defense will be tested at every level, and they'll need to limit long drives and come up with a turnover or two to help our young quarterback.  The Cowboys interior offensive line had some struggles in New York, and C Phil Costa has missed practive time this week, that could present an opportunity for our front.  The 12th man needs to be exceptionally loud and make it tough on that Dallas O-line.  If we can get a short field once or twice, we could get this one.

 

If Dallas comes in here and wins, don't panic.  Yes, we are a team with playoff aspirations, but also one with a rookie QB.  This team is being built for the long-run, and will get better as the year moves forward. 

 

But.... if we can stand up and get this one, it would make a huge statement about where the ceiling is for this squad. 

 

Warming up my voice now....



PREVIEW: Hawks at Cardinals

 

That deafening buzz you hear emanating from the Puget Sound region these days is a growing sentiment among Seahawk fans (both loyal and bandwagon-ish) that there's something good on the horizon for the home team.  After enduring over 500 player transactions during the first 3 offseasons of the Pete Carroll/John Schneider regime, the Hawks have amassed one of the more dynamic young talent cores in the NFL, and appears poised to make a run at a playoff spot.

But much of that buzz earned it's momentum via the mercurial performance of diminutive rookie QB Russell Wilson, so it needs to be tempered with a healthy dose of reality.  No matter how gifted they are, rookie quarterbacks will struggle.  Remember John Elway's 7/14 TD/INT ratio as a rookie? How about Peyton Manning throwing 28 picks his first year?

Mark it down.... Wilson will have bad games, and there will certainly be times when a restless fan base desperate for a winner will call out for Matt Flynn to get his shot.  But Carroll has an intense belief in Wilson and his special attributes, primarily his ability to lead in the face of adversity.  He'll let him fail, and give him a chance to respond. 

As I look ahead to this week's opener at Arizona, however, I'm not even thinking about the risks of pitting a rookie QB starting his first regular season game against a defense that should rank among the more troublesome in the league.  Maybe it's because I believe our running game will control the clock and allow Wilson to sustain long drives.  Or maybe I just believe Wilson is that good, and between his mobility and play-action, he'll hit on enough chunk plays to keep the Cardinals on their heels.

But mostly, it's because I see this Sunday as a coronation of sorts; a culmination of a 3 year construction project on defense.  The Cardinals offense is a mess, with both starting tackles on IR and a quarterback that didn't win the QB job as much as he was deemed the lesser of two evils.  Arizona isn't going to be able to run against the Seahawks, and John Skelton is going to struggle trying to make plays downfield with Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Jason Jones, K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner breathing down his neck.  Seattle's big, physical secondary will take rookie Michael Floyd out of the game, and while Larry Fitzgerald will make a play or two, he'll mostly be a non-factor. 

This will be a coming-out party for the Seahawks defense.  They gave us a glimpse of what they could be during the second half of the 2011 season, but Sunday they will send a message to the Cardinals, as well as the 49ers and the rest of the league, that their playoff hopes are much more than a pipe dream. 

Expectations still need to be tempered; the early schedule is daunting.  But we get the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots at home during that stretch, and this defense is going to be good enough to keep us in every game.  Even a 2-4 or 3-3 start shouldn't dampen anyone's enthusiasm, as I believe this team will improve as the year advances.  There are questions on offense, with Wilson's learning curve and the unsettled receiving corps chief among them, but what better way to allow that offense to develop than having a defensive unit that can control a game?

It's been a long time since I felt this confident going into a Seahawks opener.

This is going to be a fun year.

Seahawks 31, Cardinals 13

Did Buffalo Do The Seahawks A Favor By Signing Mario Williams?

Seahawk fans wanted Mario Williams.  He was their Prince Fielder. 

"I don't care how much money it takes! We NEED Mario Williams or we will never win again!"

It gets old, but that's just the typical fan mentality.  So be it. I submit that the Buffalo Bills did us a HUGE favor by signing Williams.

Prior to the move, Buffalo was going to take a DE in the draft.  All the mocks had Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram or *gasp* Courtney Upshaw going there, all possible targets of the Seahawks who have openly discussed their desire to bolster the pass rush through this year's draft class.  Upshaw...Upshaw...Upshaw...Upshawwwwww.....

Now, who knows where the Bills go in the draft, but they probably won't be taking one of those guys, leaving more options for Seattle at #12.  Upshaw!

(One of the more intriguing options for the Bills now is Ryan Tannehill, but that's another subject for another post...... like the one I just wrote for NFL Mocks at http://nflmocks.com/2012/03/16/seahawks-angling-for-tannehill/)

The Case For Peyton Manning (aka: I Can't Believe What I'm About To Write)

For months we've been hearing that Peyton Manning could be a free agent this Spring, and for months we've had to endure Seahawk fans clamoring for him to resume his career in the Pacific Northwest. 

I heard the cries, and I tuned them out.  Hell, I HATED the idea.

No way, would Peyton Manning want to come to Seattle.

No way, would Pete Carroll and John Schneider shelve their rebuilding plan to hitch their wagon to a guy who's too old, too expensive, and too much of an injury risk.

No way, did I want him.

But I'm here to tell you I'm coming around. 

Fuck that, I'm all in.

What changed my mind?  First of all, some of the sports writers I respect the most are saying they have knowledge of the Seahawks legitimate interest in Manning.  Secondly..... I'm a lifelong Seahawks fan, and I want to win. 

And.... it's Peyton Freaking Manning!!!!

For those of you who don't know me, or haven't read my stuff, you know that I'm usually a big-picture kind of guy.  Don't sell the farm, don't bet the house, don't eschew long-term sustained success for short-term gain born out of panic or impatience. 

It's now my opinion that signing Manning would NOT be a sign that Carroll and Schneider are doing any of that.  I believe they thought it would take longer to reshape the roster the way they wanted to; younger, bigger, faster, stronger, more physical.  They're ahead of schedule.  So much so, that the stage could be perfectly set for Manning to A) Succeed in Seattle and B) Want to come here.

The defense is young, and well on it's way to being one of the league's best.  The offensive line was reshaped last year and looked like a solid unit the last 8 games of 2011, and together with Marshawn Lynch can provide something Manning has never enjoyed in his storied career, a bruising running game. There are weapons at WR and TE.  But most of all I believe that once Manning has done his research on potential landing spots (and does anyone think for a minute that he hasn't already?) that he'll see a rising, young General Manager who is proving himself to be a premier finder of talent. 

Are you ready for me Seattle?

And that might just be the factor that turned me around on this issue as I tried to wrap my head around the reality of it all.  Would a Peyton Manning contract be seen as a potential albatross by some?  Of course it will, but it shouldn't be.  Franchise QB's cost money, lots of it, but the Seahawks under Schneider have proven they can find talent anywhere; late rounds of the draft, off the streets, Canada.  It would be crucial for any team signing Manning to be sure they also identify and acquire a young QB to groom as a successor should his career end prematurely, but as for the rest of the roster, the Seahawks have depth, balance, and talented youth.  They have an owner willing and capable of spending whatever is needed to win, and they're smart, extremely smart in how they structure contracts and manage their salary structure.  Worst case scenario is Manning comes here, isn't 100%, doesn't take us to a Super Bowl, and we have to move on.  But I am convinced the rest of our roster would still be in great shape even if that were to happen. 

We can talk later about other scenarios; what to do if we sign him and he doesn't pan out, how to back him up if he does, or Plan B if we take a shot at him and he goes elsewhere. 

For today, I'm going to entertain the possibility that Manning to Seattle really could happen, tune out the cynics and the naysayers, and just sit back and watch it all unfold. 

Mock Draft -- Version 1

No trades, and no lenghty scouting reports.  Just my view on how the first round is going to look. 

Any shockers?  Probably not, but check out my thoughts on what Cleveland might do, and remember..... you heard it here first!

Andrew Luck

1) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -- Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
 I don't care how the Colts choose to handle the Peyton Manning situation, this is the biggest no-brainer since.....1998? Maybe, but even then there were a lot of GM's who thought Ryan Leaf had a bigger upside.  There is some similar buzz around Robert Griffin III right now, but it's not nearly as loud.  Luck is the pick and will start from Day 1.

2) ST. LOUIS RAMS -- Matt Kalil, OT, USC
This pick could be more valuable as a trade chip, but if they stand pat the Rams will finally grab a LT capable of holding down the position for a decade. 

3) MINNESOTA VIKINGS -- Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Vikings need all they help they can get covering the elite receivers in their division.  Claiborne is an instant upgrade. 

4) CLEVELAND BROWNS -- Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

I know I'm in the minority, but I don't think Griffin is the ideal fit here.  Mike Holmgren took a QB with a similar skill set in Seneca Wallace and virtually neutered him in Seattle, conditioning him to stay in the pocket and never use his talented legs.  Ryan Tannehill is more in the mold of Matt Hasselbeck, ran a West Coast offense at Texas A&M, and might make more sense.  I could see the Browns trading down, but because I'm not projecting trades, I'll go with the consensus pick here and probably the guy who would be the target of any other club trading up to #4.

5) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -- Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
There are needs on defense, but the Bucs have to get Josh Freeman an elite talent at WR. Blackmon fills that need.

6) WASHINGTON REDSKINS -- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
At some point, Mike Shanahan is going to have to mold a young QB in D.C.  I don't get all the Tannehill detractors.  Looks like a quality starter to me. 

7) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -- Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Questions about the consistency of his motor, but no questioning his upside.  Shining at Senior Bowl practices.

8) CAROLINA PANTHERS -- David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
WR is a need but no one projects this high, unless Blackmon slides.  DeCastro will protect Cam Newton and blow holes open for him and his talented backs. 

9) MIAMI DOLPHINS -- Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
I'm projecting Miami to land Matt Flynn, so the QB need is filled.  Richardson is an elite talent, and the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.  Instantly, the Dolphins take a quantum leap forward on offense.

10) BUFFALO BILLS -- Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
Shorter than ideal for a DE, but intense, versatile, and gets to the passer.

Courtney Upshaw

11) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -- Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
 Every down LB fills a need for the Hawks rising young defense.   Plays the run well and can  really get after the quarterback.

12)  KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -- Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
The Chiefs go OL again, but this time find a legitimate LT.  Brandon Albert moves to RT or inside.

13)  ARIZONA CARDINALS -- Reily Reiff, OT, Iowa
      
14)  DALLAS COWBOYS -- Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
If anyone is going to be willing to look past Kirkpatricks recent legal issues, it could be Jerry Jones.  Best player on the board and he fills a need.

15)  PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -- Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Best MLB in the draft fills a gaping hole for the Eagles.

16)  N.Y. JETS -- Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
If the Jets are going to stick with Mark Sanchez, they have to give him some weapons.  Floyd has good size and can separate.

17)  CINCINNATI BENGALS -- Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Bengals rising defense needs help in their back 7.  The former Florida Gator is showing off his      pure cover skills in Mobile this week.

18)  SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -- Mark Barron, S, Alabama
Bob Sanders had nothing left.  Barron is the best safety in the draft and along with Eric Weddle       will anchor the Bolts back end for years to come. 

19)  CHICAGO BEARS -- Kendal Wright, WR, Baylor
Jay Cutler needs weapons.  Check!

20)  TENNESSEE TITANS -- Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Young, with tons of upside.  Should develop into a disruptive force.

21)  CINCINNATI BENGALS -- Nick Perry, DE, USC
Marvin Lewis is putting the finishing touches on a dynamic young defense.  Perry can really rush the passer.

22)  ATLANTA FALCONS -- Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
That's FIVE Crimson Tide players in the Top 22. 

    
23)  DETROIT LIONS -- Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Finally, the Lions address their secondary.

24)  PITTSBURGH STEELERS -- Devon Still, DT, Penn State
Excellent value here, and the Steelers need to get younger up front.

25)  DENVER BRONCOS -- Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
With Decker and Thomas on the outside, Tebow can use a dynamic TE like Fleener to provide a safety valve, but Fleener can stretch the field also.  Gronkowsi-like upside.

Alshon Jeffery

26)  HOUSTON TEXANS -- Alshon Jefferey, WR, South Carolina
A worthy compliment to Andre Johnson.

27)  NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -- Fletcher Cox, DE, Mississippi State
Here we go, Bill Belichick reshapes the defense, and he gets multiple  picks to get it done.

28)  GREEN BAY PACKERS -- Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Tough, local, and fills a need.

29)  BALTIMORE RAVENS -- Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
Great fit in the Ravens 3-4.  Speed to burn from the edge.

30)  SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
A bit raw, but immediately upgrades the 49ers receiving corps.

31)  NY GIANTS -- Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Reunited with his college teammate Prince Amukamara.

32)  NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -- Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
      

  

Senior Bowl -- Potential Seahawk Targets

Thanks to the NFL Network, Senior Bowl week has become must-see TV for diehard college football geeks and closet scouts alike.  Every practice is televised and analyzed, and we get to hear the awesome Mike Mayock give us his insights.  Remember when the Hula Bowl and the Shrine Game were just as big as the Senior Bowl? Well no more.  Now, this game stands above them all, primarily because it's the only one that utilizes current NFL coaches to run the teams.  The best part of that?  Getting to see spread-system college QB's taking snaps from under center, dropping back, and having to make NFL reads against quality competition. 

All this week I'll be training my eye on possible targets for the Seahawks.  Not just guys that I think could fit into the first round picture, but anyone who might fit our current needs and schemes. 

Before the players even hit the field, here are a few areas I'm keeping my eye on:



1) The Quarterbacks:  Yep, ALL of them.  It's a shame Ryan Tannehill got hurt, but because he played under center a lot in a system run by former NFL Head Coach Mike Sherman, he probably had the least to prove this week in Mobile.  Nick Foles, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Lindley, Kellen Moore and Russell Wilson are all intriguing guys who played in spread-shotgun systems.  I'm anxious to see who seperates themself from the pack this week.  This is where Christian Ponder started to make his move up draft boards last Winter. 

2)  The pass-rushers:  Courtney Upshaw, Quinton Coples, Nick Perry, Melvin Ingram, Andre Branch, Zach Brown..... It doesn't seem like this year's class is full of elite talent, but the group is varied and intriguing.  Because the Senior Bowl limits blitzing and stunting during the game, it will be interesting to see who among this group stands out going man-up against some of the better offensive linemen in the country. 

3)  Running backs:  With all the focus on Marshawn Lynch's impending free agency, one of the things no one seems to be discussing is the Seahawks glaring need for a quality complimentary back.  Washington and Forsett are both situational backs, and Forsett probably won't be back (his contract is expiring.)  With the Hawks emphasis on a physical running game keying their late-season resurgence, and looking like the blueprint they intend to follow moving forward, a more physical, versatile back is needed to spell and compliment Beastmode.  Finding someone who can run between the tackles, pick up blitzes in the passing game, and catch a ball out of the backfield, has to be a huge priority this offseason.  Two of the most interesting backs in this game are also two of the most local, and I think either Boise State's Doug Martin or UW's Chris Polk could be a solid fit in Seattle.  I'm not as familiar with some of the other backs in the game, so this will be a valuable fact-finding week in that regard. 

There are other needs, obviously.  With their penchant for finding young talent and fostering competition, it will never surprise me which direction Jon Schneider and Pete Carroll choose to go on draft day.  Any CB over 5-11 will be evaluated, as will any game-breaking WR or lineman capable of playing multiple spots.  But I believe the three most glaring needs are the ones listed above.