Century Link Field, Seattle WA

Century Link Field, Seattle WA

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Mock Draft -- Version 1

No trades, and no lenghty scouting reports.  Just my view on how the first round is going to look. 

Any shockers?  Probably not, but check out my thoughts on what Cleveland might do, and remember..... you heard it here first!
Andrew Luck
1) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -- Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
 I don't care how the Colts choose to handle the Peyton Manning situation, this is the biggest no-brainer since.....1998? Maybe, but even then there were a lot of GM's who thought Ryan Leaf had a bigger upside.  There is some similar buzz around Robert Griffin III right now, but it's not nearly as loud.  Luck is the pick and will start from Day 1.

2) ST. LOUIS RAMS -- Matt Kalil, OT, USC
This pick could be more valuable as a trade chip, but if they stand pat the Rams will finally grab a LT capable of holding down the position for a decade. 

3) MINNESOTA VIKINGS -- Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Vikings need all they help they can get covering the elite receivers in their division.  Claiborne is an instant upgrade. 

4) CLEVELAND BROWNS -- Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
I know I'm in the minority, but I don't think Griffin is the ideal fit here.  Mike Holmgren took a QB with a similar skill set in Seneca Wallace and virtually neutered him in Seattle, conditioning him to stay in the pocket and never use his talented legs.  Ryan Tannehill is more in the mold of Matt Hasselbeck, ran a West Coast offense at Texas A&M, and might make more sense.  I could see the Browns trading down, but because I'm not projecting trades, I'll go with the consensus pick here and probably the guy who would be the target of any other club trading up to #4.

5) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -- Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
There are needs on defense, but the Bucs have to get Josh Freeman an elite talent at WR. Blackmon fills that need.

6) WASHINGTON REDSKINS -- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
At some point, Mike Shanahan is going to have to mold a young QB in D.C.  I don't get all the Tannehill detractors.  Looks like a quality starter to me. 

7) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -- Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Questions about the consistency of his motor, but no questioning his upside.  Shining at Senior Bowl practices.

8) CAROLINA PANTHERS -- David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
WR is a need but no one projects this high, unless Blackmon slides.  DeCastro will protect Cam Newton and blow holes open for him and his talented backs. 

9) MIAMI DOLPHINS -- Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
I'm projecting Miami to land Matt Flynn, so the QB need is filled.  Richardson is an elite talent, and the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.  Instantly, the Dolphins take a quantum leap forward on offense.

10) BUFFALO BILLS -- Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
Shorter than ideal for a DE, but intense, versatile, and gets to the passer.

Courtney Upshaw
11) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -- Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
 Every down LB fills a need for the Hawks rising young defense.   Plays the run well and can  really get after the quarterback.

12)  KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -- Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
The Chiefs go OL again, but this time find a legitimate LT.  Brandon Albert moves to RT or inside.

13)  ARIZONA CARDINALS -- Reily Reiff, OT, Iowa
      
14)  DALLAS COWBOYS -- Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
If anyone is going to be willing to look past Kirkpatricks recent legal issues, it could be Jerry Jones.  Best player on the board and he fills a need.

15)  PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -- Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Best MLB in the draft fills a gaping hole for the Eagles.

16)  N.Y. JETS -- Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
If the Jets are going to stick with Mark Sanchez, they have to give him some weapons.  Floyd has good size and can separate.

17)  CINCINNATI BENGALS -- Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Bengals rising defense needs help in their back 7.  The former Florida Gator is showing off his      pure cover skills in Mobile this week.

18)  SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -- Mark Barron, S, Alabama
Bob Sanders had nothing left.  Barron is the best safety in the draft and along with Eric Weddle       will anchor the Bolts back end for years to come. 

19)  CHICAGO BEARS -- Kendal Wright, WR, Baylor
Jay Cutler needs weapons.  Check!

20)  TENNESSEE TITANS -- Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Young, with tons of upside.  Should develop into a disruptive force.

21)  CINCINNATI BENGALS -- Nick Perry, DE, USC
Marvin Lewis is putting the finishing touches on a dynamic young defense.  Perry can really rush the passer.

22)  ATLANTA FALCONS -- Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
That's FIVE Crimson Tide players in the Top 22. 

    
23)  DETROIT LIONS -- Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Finally, the Lions address their secondary.

24)  PITTSBURGH STEELERS -- Devon Still, DT, Penn State
Excellent value here, and the Steelers need to get younger up front.

25)  DENVER BRONCOS -- Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
With Decker and Thomas on the outside, Tebow can use a dynamic TE like Fleener to provide a safety valve, but Fleener can stretch the field also.  Gronkowsi-like upside.

Alshon Jeffery
26)  HOUSTON TEXANS -- Alshon Jefferey, WR, South Carolina
A worthy compliment to Andre Johnson.

27)  NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -- Fletcher Cox, DE, Mississippi State
Here we go, Bill Belichick reshapes the defense, and he gets multiple  picks to get it done.

28)  GREEN BAY PACKERS -- Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Tough, local, and fills a need.

29)  BALTIMORE RAVENS -- Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
Great fit in the Ravens 3-4.  Speed to burn from the edge.

30)  SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
A bit raw, but immediately upgrades the 49ers receiving corps.

31)  NY GIANTS -- Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Reunited with his college teammate Prince Amukamara.

32)  NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -- Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
      

  

Monday, January 23, 2012

Senior Bowl -- Potential Seahawk Targets

Thanks to the NFL Network, Senior Bowl week has become must-see TV for diehard college football geeks and closet scouts alike.  Every practice is televised and analyzed, and we get to hear the awesome Mike Mayock give us his insights.  Remember when the Hula Bowl and the Shrine Game were just as big as the Senior Bowl? Well no more.  Now, this game stands above them all, primarily because it's the only one that utilizes current NFL coaches to run the teams.  The best part of that?  Getting to see spread-system college QB's taking snaps from under center, dropping back, and having to make NFL reads against quality competition. 

All this week I'll be training my eye on possible targets for the Seahawks.  Not just guys that I think could fit into the first round picture, but anyone who might fit our current needs and schemes. 

Before the players even hit the field, here are a few areas I'm keeping my eye on:



1) The Quarterbacks:  Yep, ALL of them.  It's a shame Ryan Tannehill got hurt, but because he played under center a lot in a system run by former NFL Head Coach Mike Sherman, he probably had the least to prove this week in Mobile.  Nick Foles, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Lindley, Kellen Moore and Russell Wilson are all intriguing guys who played in spread-shotgun systems.  I'm anxious to see who seperates themself from the pack this week.  This is where Christian Ponder started to make his move up draft boards last Winter. 



2)  The pass-rushers:  Courtney Upshaw, Quinton Coples, Nick Perry, Melvin Ingram, Andre Branch, Zach Brown..... It doesn't seem like this year's class is full of elite talent, but the group is varied and intriguing.  Because the Senior Bowl limits blitzing and stunting during the game, it will be interesting to see who among this group stands out going man-up against some of the better offensive linemen in the country. 



3)  Running backs:  With all the focus on Marshawn Lynch's impending free agency, one of the things no one seems to be discussing is the Seahawks glaring need for a quality complimentary back.  Washington and Forsett are both situational backs, and Forsett probably won't be back (his contract is expiring.)  With the Hawks emphasis on a physical running game keying their late-season resurgence, and looking like the blueprint they intend to follow moving forward, a more physical, versatile back is needed to spell and compliment Beastmode.  Finding someone who can run between the tackles, pick up blitzes in the passing game, and catch a ball out of the backfield, has to be a huge priority this offseason.  Two of the most interesting backs in this game are also two of the most local, and I think either Boise State's Doug Martin or UW's Chris Polk could be a solid fit in Seattle.  I'm not as familiar with some of the other backs in the game, so this will be a valuable fact-finding week in that regard. 

There are other needs, obviously.  With their penchant for finding young talent and fostering competition, it will never surprise me which direction Jon Schneider and Pete Carroll choose to go on draft day.  Any CB over 5-11 will be evaluated, as will any game-breaking WR or lineman capable of playing multiple spots.  But I believe the three most glaring needs are the ones listed above.

Friday, January 13, 2012

"Just Say No" to Matt Flynn

It's all the rage these days, you know.

Seemingly, everyone is on the Matt Flynn Bandwagon.

Even before all of this, as far back as August 15th on this very blog I speculated that Matt Flynn could very well be the Seahawks long-term answer at QB. 

As I sit here today, I'm not completely sure that he isn't the answer.  I just know that I don't want him to be.

I've watched the replay of his record-setting start against the Lions in Week #17; watched it a few times.  Pause, play, pause, play..... rewind...... play.

Pause.

Matt Flynn might very well be a fine starting QB in the NFL for a long time, but can he be elite?  I just don't think so.  For that reason, I'm now fully in favor of identifying, drafting and developing our own.

Flynn does a lot of things well.  He's decisive, accurate and gets the ball out quick, spreading it around to all of his available weapons.  But as I watched him against the Lions I couldn't help thinking this was a guy who's been preparing 16 weeks for this one start.  And, everything went his way in that game.  His banged-up offensive line kept him relatively clean, and some balls he put up for grabs ended up as spectacular catches for touchdowns. I'm talking to you Jordy Nelson.  He also threw one VERY bad interception, and had two others dropped that would have looked equally horrific on the highlight tape, and might have changed the very outcome of the game. 

But most of all, the reason I don't endorse bringing in Matt Flynn can best be summed up this way:  The guy taking snaps for the OTHER team that day.

I'm watching Flynn and I'm seeing a guy with a short arm, who shot puts the ball and looks like he has to have everything moving in the right direction to make a strong throw.  Then Matt Stafford comes out and flicks his wrist and the ball is 40 yards down field on a line for a big gain.  I didn't see Flynn throw into any tight windows, while Stafford was living in them.  The reality is, Flynn had a lot of wide open receivers to throw to. 

I can hear the rebuttals already; "But Stafford was the top overall pick!"  I realize that.  But as much as this QB draft at one time looked like it was going to be stocked with ready-to-play blue-chip prospects, now it's looking more and more like the high-ceiling-developmental-guy draft. 

And I think that plays right into the hands of Jon Schneider and Pete Carroll.

They take pride in finding young talent, and they trust their scouting process implicitly.  They will never draft a player because the consensus is he's the best player available, or bow to public pressure.

This draft is now littered with young, intriguing QB's who, provided they're properly nurtured and trained, have much higher ceilings than Matt Flynn.  Chandler Harnish, Brock Osweiler, The Ryans (Tannehill and Lindley) and Nick Foles are all  guys who could be there for the taking.  All are at least a full season away from being game-ready, but each possesses an exciting skill-set.  Some would require using a first round choice, others could be had in the 2nd or later.

At this point, my preferred course of action is to draft a develop our own QB.  It may take a little longer for it to click, and I suspect that's why a lot of fans are in favor of The Flynn Option; they're impatient and hungry for a winner.  I get that, I am too..... but I want to win a LOT, and for a long time.  It has to be done right.

Regardless of how you feel about Tavaris Jackson, he's really the ideal bridge QB, and once the running game got going last year it was clear we can win with him while we wait for our young QB to be ready.  Think Jon Kitna/Carson Palmer.  Draft one of the guys I mentioned, and sit him.  Have him be inactive on game day.  DO NOT play him until he's ready. 

We could all reap the benefits for years to come.

Friday, January 6, 2012

My New Man Crush --- THIS Guy!


It may not garner a lot of national attention, but Arizona State Junior Brock Osweiler is going to announce his intentions today to enter the 2012 NFL Draft.

And I say...... HELL YES!!!!!

Over the last couple of weeks it's been nothing but bad news when it comes to the Seahawks chances of landing that elusive "Next Franchise Quarterback."  Matt Barkley is staying in school, Landry Jones first showed himself to not be worthy of a 1st round pick and then took his name out of the hat altogether, RGIII rocketed to the top of the draft board, and Matt Flynn stepped out of the shadows and vastly increased his potential contract value by blowing up the Lions in week #17. 

We needed some good news, and it came in the form of Osweiler.

No long film breakdown here, just my quick thoughts:

If you don't know who Brock Osweiler is, look him up.  The first thing you'll find is that he's tall.  REALLY tall.  6' 8" tall.  This is where, if you're a lifelong Seahawk fan, you'll stop reading and vow to never come back to my blog EVER again.  We tried drafting a 6' 8" QB once right?  And now we have to be reminded of that every time we see Dan McGwire in one of those Greatest Draft Busts Ever lists.  Well, McGwire was a bad pick, pure and simple.  I remember my first time covering Seahawks training camp and getting to see him throw up close.  He threw like a girl.  Seriously..... you know the way a girl curls her wrist up and then tries to spin a ball out to make it spiral?  That's the way McGwire threw a football.  It was gross.  But just because he failed has absolutely no bearing on the future success of other tall quarterbacks. 

And this is no normal tall quarterback. 

This guy isn't just an athlete, but he was a good enough basketball player that he originally accepted a hoop scholarship to GONZAGA before changing his mind and heading to ASU to commit to football.  Last fall, he even announced that he would be joining Herb Sendek's Sun Devil basketball team after football season was over, but I could find no written or visual evidence that he ever did.

Still, put on the tape and you'll see this guy is a great athlete.  Usually taller QB's struggle with footwork, but Osweiler is outstanding at whipping his feet around and getting in position to throw after a play-action fake.  As you would hope from a guy his size, he has a big arm, and his footwork is so good that he's consistently accurate in the short, intermediate and deep game.  You'll hear about how he changed his delivery last year with the help of ASU O.C. Noel Mazzone, and now it's extremely compact and quick. He appears on tape to survey the entire field and go to his secondary reads quickly and decisively when his primary target is covered.  And best of all, he hangs in the pocket and stands strong even when he knows he's about to get hit, a quality I look for and one that is crucial in a young QB (I'm talking to you Blaine Gabbert.)

 In short, he is the whole package.  I've seen one draft expert already refer to him as the "Most physically gifted QB in the draft not named Andrew Luck." 

So, what's wrong with him and why is he being projected as a 2nd or 3rd round pick at this point?  Call it the Mark Sanchez Factor.  He only has 15 starts under his belt.  He will show in inexperience at times by forcing a ball into coverage. 

So what?

What the Seahawks need to acquire is a young QB with the elusive "upside" you hear so much about.  A kid with a high ceiling.  Want to throw a bunch of money at Matt Flynn?  Fine, but what you see is what you get, and as much as I like Flynn, I'm not sure you're ever going to get anything close to an elite QB with him.  Hitching your wagon to Brock Osweiler might be higher risk, but if you do it right you can have a true elite QB.  And it has a lot more to do with how pretty a spiral you can spin.  Spend some time on YouTube and check this kid out.  Not just his highlights, but his interviews.  He has a way about him.  He's articulate, funny, a little cocky, and definitely carries himself with a dynamic quality that is sure to excite the fanbase and hopefully his teammates in the locker room. 

He's only 22, he's just begun to tap his vast potential  Let him sit behind Jackson and Portis for a year, and hand him the reigns in 2013.  He could be a 10-year answer at the position.

Best of all, he looks a lot like the late Quiet Riot singer Kevin Dubrow, which is pretty damn cool.

So far I've taken a close look at Ryan Tannehill (writeup to come), Austin Davis (likely a middle to late round pick) Griffin and Osweiler.  I still haven't watched the Packers vs. Lions replay from start to finish, nor have I seen enough of Nick Foles to make a judgement, but at this point I prefer Osweiler to all of them.  As a junior, he won't play in the Senior Bowl, but with his skillset he could rocket up draft boards with a good combine and/or personal workouts. 

So at this point I'm suggesting that this kid could be our FIRST round pick.  Certainly a lot can change over the next few months, but whether you agree with my assessment of Osweiler or not, his mere presence in this draft adds another intriguing option to the mix, and bolsters the Seahawks draft position in regards.

This QB thing just got a whole lot more interesting.